Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Belated Thoughts on the Presidential Foreign Policy Debate and the Importance of China

Source: New York Daily News
 The last presidential debate was a few days ago and focused on one of my chief areas of interests, i.e. foreign policy, so naturally I watched the whole thing (I only watched part of the other two debates and none of the VP debate...*yawns). This debate was rather lackluster as I expected it to be. I would say that neither participant "won" though Obama did manage to liven things up a few times such as when he wittily countered Romney's archaic views on the Navy by responding that naval warfare is no longer a "game of battleship" in which we simply count how many vessels we have vis a vis our opponents. (Romney had been criticizing the fact that the US Navy now has less vessels than it did in 1916.) 

I think Romney's chief difficulty was in delineating precisely how his foreign policy differs (or will differ if elected) from Obama's. For the most part Romney and Obama seemed to be on the same page on the various, though severely limited, global issues that were discussed (the only clear exception being military spending). The most Romney ever did to distance himself from Obama was a few vague criticisms directed towards the Obama administration's lack of geopolitical leadership. Most surprising of all Romney did not attack Obama for the administration's clear mishandling of the Libya affair that left some Americans dead, US Ambassador Stevens among them, even though the moderator gave him ample opportunity to do so. (This is similar to Obama's surprising omission in the first debate concerning Romney's 47 percent gaffe.)

Ultimately though Romney's performance during the debate is irrelevant since foreign policy itself tends to be irrelevant to most voters. Rarely have elections been decided based on a candidate's foreign policy views and unless a major crisis erupts in the next couple of weeks foreign policy will remain a negligible factor for undecided voters. (For those who care my own prediction is that Obama will narrowly be re-elected.)

At any rate what was most disappointing to me about the debate was the pathetic amount of time given to discussing China (Brazil, another important rising power, was completely ignored as were several other countries and regions.) In fact in the small amount of time that was given to debating about Chinese policy both candidates managed to steer the topic to a discussion about the US economy! 

Source: Rolling Stone Magazine
Now here's the thing, I'm actually skeptical that China is destined to become the next exclusive super power in the sense that it will eclipse the US in influence and prestige or that the US is inevitably on a crash course, diplomatically and/or militarily, with Beijing. Nevertheless, I do support the view that China is immensely important when it comes to global affairs and that it will in all probability continue to rise which means that the power center of the globe will increasingly shift to East Asia. And as such prudence dictates that the US should begin to formulate a robust foreign policy that also strategically shifts, or to employ a ridiculously overused word in international relations lingo, pivots, East.


The future (and current) importance of China is nicely illustrated in a scene from the recent entertaining time travel film Looper where Jeff Daniels character, incredulous that the young Bruce Willis (played by Joseph Gordon Levit) wants to learn French, strongly insists instead that he learn Mandarin (Mainland Chinese). "Trust me", he says, "I'm from the future. Learn Mandarin."

Indeed, China's growing strategic importance, my love for Chinese/Hong Kong Kung Fu films, and Looper have caused me to rethink my future historical subjects of inquiry. Maybe it's time that I too begin to shift, or as much it pains me to say, pivot, Eastward.

Friday, October 5, 2012

Being President is Bad for One's Health


I watched about half of the presidential debate last night and there's no doubt that at least for the bit I watched Romney clearly out debated Obama. Obama was often hesitant in his replies and his answers were rarely stated with any confidence. This was shocking to me since Obama almost always debates well. But one thing that particularly struck me is how much Obama has seemingly aged after just four years of being in office. It was a reminder to me that being President of the United States is often detrimental to one's health. Aside from of course the possibility of being assassinated the demanding nature of the office clearly exacts an awful toll on both body and soul of the incumbent. The way Obama looked last night, namely, lacking the vigor he clearly possessed during the 2008 campaign prompted me to go back and look at before and after pictures of former US presidents down to Lyndon Johnson. Here's what I discovered:


Obama 2008
2012 (debate night)





















Bush 2001

 2008




















Clinton 1992
 2000




















 1992

H.W. Bush 1988



Reagan 1980
1988


















Carter 1976
 1980














Ford 1974
1976

















Tricky Dick 1968

1974















 1968
Johnson 1963








Moral of the story: if you desire longevity and good health don't become president.








Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Afghanistan Recollections: First Mission

Breakfast just before the mission.
*At one time I had toyed around with writing a memoir of my time in Afghanistan and what follows was meant to be the prologue. I later abandoned the idea when I realized that I simply did not have an extensive enough account recorded in my journal to aid in this task. 



 Somewhat apprehensively I eased out of the back of the truck as gently as possible until I felt my boot firmly touch the road. Well, it wasn't really a road per se, more like a dirt path. This far outside of Kandahar City there wasn't anything one could accurately call a road, at least not in any conventional sense. In fact, the whole of Afghanistan has just four main paved highways that crisscross the country. With few exceptions most other routes were like this one, namely, somewhat compact dirt pathways that unfortunately posed little problem for insurgents in terms of IED placement (except during the winter months when the ground becomes significantly hardened).

And it was precisely this threat of IEDs that explained why I now found myself in the middle of this dangerous road. I was part of a Combat Engineering Unit tasked with “route clearance” which sounds more benign than it really is. Our job was to clear routes of IEDs so as to enable infantry or SF or whomever access to their objective areas. This is why historically the Combat Engineer motto has been “clearing the way.” At any rate, for this, my very first mission, it was business as usual as my platoon had been assigned to escort an infantry unit while clearing the route of IEDs.

But part way through the mission the Infantry unit we were embedded with asked us to halt the convoy. Standard procedure was to set up a security perimeter around the convoy upon the order of a stop. Through my headset I could hear our TC (truck commander) grumble in response to this “request” by the Infantry commander. The TC hesitated a bit before finally ordering me outside. For this mission I was the dismount and so as expected was ordered to hop out and take part in the security perimeter then being formed. So as I had been trained to do I walked out about 5 meters from the road and took a kneeling position and began to scan the area ahead of me which included several mud structures, omnipresent in the rural areas of Afghanistan.

I should have been concentrating on my sector but instead all I could think about was how I was finally in the country that I had been reading about voraciously for the past year. This was the place where supposedly Empires came to die or at the least to be severely humiliated. Alexander, the Arabs, Genghis Khan, the British, the Soviets, and now the United States. And now me...in the “graveyard of empires”, a place most Westerners, especially Americans, would not be able to identify on an Atlas. As the old saying goes “war is how geography is taught to Americans” or something near to that. I would later come to doubt this popular view of the supposed unconquerable nature of Afghanistan (for example see the following post) but at the time I accepted this standard interpretation and it was certainly on my mind as I knelt there in the dirt.

“Hey!”, bellowed a voice behind me, disrupting my reverie. I turned to see one of the Infantry Sergeants hurrying toward my position. “Get back on the road, Specialist,” he stated while beckoning me towards him. I readily obeyed situating myself inside the tire tracks, theoretically the safest place to be on the road.Then somewhat exasperatedly he exclaimed, “You realize there are anti-personnel mines all over the place here?”

Shit. He was right of course. In fact, I had read that Afghanistan was estimated to still have 7-9 million mines scattered about the country, most of them left over from the 1979-89 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Only Cambodia and the Congo were calculated to have more mines. Here was my first instance in which it was made clear that rigidly following handbook SOPs (standard operating procedure) could possibly get one killed. For as I stated earlier the SOP in this case dictated a 5 meter depth when setting up a security perimeter around a convoy, but the surfeit of mines in Afghanistan rendered this normal procedure foolhardy. (I would repeatedly discover throughout my deployment that our Army handbooks were rarely an astute guide when it came to executing tactics on the ground.)

So I continued for a few moments pulling security from the tire tracks while dwelling on the stupidity of what I had just done. But my self-chastisement didn't last long as we were then given the order to mount back up. Back inside the truck my TC started to complain again about the command decision to have the convoy stop and dismount. (Later, it was explained to me that our unit's own policy was, except when absolutely necessary, never to dismount in the south because mines and IEDs were so ubiquitous there compared to the east where my unit had originally been stationed. This was why the TC had hesitated before ordering me to dismount.)

Clearing the way.
Nevertheless, we resumed our extremely slow pace down the route, patiently attempting to find IEDs and then neutralize them, preferably by NOT blowing up any of our vehicles in the process. This entire procedure could be very monotonous as it involved moving down the route at very slow speeds and then periodically stopping for long lengths of time to investigate suspected IEDs quite often discovering the item to be just an abnormally shaped rock or something. For a dismount such as myself at the time the monotony could be quite unbearable. The paradox for combat engineers is that route clearance is one of the most dangerous jobs a soldier can do and one of the most boring.

But my boredom on this mission subsided somewhat as I developed the sudden urge to relieve myself. Of course there was no stopping the convoy for such which meant I had to take care of the problem right there in the truck while we were on the move. Now it suddenly dawned on me why I had seen several empty Gatorade bottles scattered in the living quarters that I shared with the driver, PFC Graley, and gunner, SPC Kelly. The necks of Gatorade bottles are much wider than standard water bottles hence much easier to piss in. The trouble was that this realization arrived much too late since all I had were empty water bottles.

As I struggled to work around my armor and piss in the water bottle I could hear over the headset one our Huskies (a slender bodied IED detection vehicle with GPR panels) indicating that it had registered something on its GPR screen. Mercifully for me, the LT called a halt to the convoy and ordered the Husky to double check its finding. This provided me with just enough time to finish up with, I should note, little success. So I quickly strapped myself back in and along with the rest of the convoy awaited the Husky's analysis.

A few moments later there was something that sounded like a muffled crack of thunder. Immediately our headsets lit up as it became clear that as the Husky had been going over its area for a third and final time it struck an IED. The driver of the Husky, SPC Collins, quickly came over the radio to indicate that he was fine but that the Husky wasn't. As our vehicle was the closest with a mine roller ( a large protruding extension of rollers attached to the front of some of the trucks) the LT ordered us to sweep and clear the area so that a wrecker could approach and recover the downed vehicle. So Graley took the truck and mine rolled a significant area around the downed Husky to ensure that the wrecker would have enough of a “safe” area to work with.

We finished rolling the area and since we didn't set anything off our TC radioed to the LT to let him know that we were finished clearing the area. The wrecker was then ordered to proceed toward the Husky but as it did so another explosion rocked the area. It was so close that we thought our truck had been hit but turned out to be the wrecker that was hit. The blast was such that it basically destroyed the wrecker but thankfully the two soldiers that were in the vehicle somehow ended up without any serious injuries. After it had been determined that the soldiers were fine, Kelly, our gunner, looked at me and stated succinctly “Welcome to Afghanistan, Petersen.”

So then for my very first mission I learned at least three very important things:
  1. Never walk off the road in a mine infested area. (And its corollary that the SOP cannot be inflexibly followed.)
  2. IEDs almost always come in pairs (or more).
  3. And, lastly, always bring plenty of empty Gatorade bottles.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Sherlock Holmes and Gregory House: A Terse Comparative Analysis

As the old saying goes "all good things come to an end."

One of my favorite TV shows has been House, M.D which finally concluded this past year after eight seasons. It was surely past its peak point (I would place the show's apogee just before House's stay in the sanatorium) and so probably needed to end. Nevertheless, I still enjoyed every bit of Hugh Laurie's performance as the titular character even in those weaker seasons and so would have gladly watched on if it had continued.  (By the way for those of you who loved Hugh Laurie as House you should definitely watch his early British comedic work, especially his stuff with Stephen Fry.)

But for me the death of one thing usually means the birth of something else. And my newest and to date most pleasurable form of media entertainment is the BBC's excellent TV series called simply enough, Sherlock.  As the title indicates it is based on Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's Victorian detective, Sherlock Holmes, but with a contemporary spin on the classic stories and stars Benedict Cumberbatch as Sherlock Holmes and Martin Freeman as Dr. John Watson. (To give just one example of the show's modern setting instead of smoking pipes Holmes uses nicotine patches to help him think.) This is rather appropriate since the character of House, according to his creator, was in fact based on Sherlock Holmes. And so because of this amusing serendipity I would like to briefly engage in a comparison between the two characters in this post.

The two are of course obviously similar in many respects. Both use the science of deduction to solve their respective cases, for House it's figuring out the mysterious disease/ailment/other that is afflicting his patient(s), for Holmes it usually means uncovering the mysteries behind a murder or series of murders. Both affirm reason as the highest, perhaps only, principle. Both are driven by the compulsive desire to solve puzzles. Both are probably atheists. (House affirms this a few times in the show; it's somewhat less clear with Holmes but since God cannot be deduced, Holmes would likely not even entertain the notion of a deity.) Both are unconventional socially, e.g., often stating bluntly what's on their minds no matter the situation or behaving in such a way as to make others most uncomfortable. And both get bored easily which is why they need puzzles of one sort or another to keep them preoccupied.

But there the similarities end. House is different from Holmes in several ways. For one, House is clearly a misanthrope, having little to no faith in people, a sentiment nicely summed up in one of his oft used phrases "everybody lies." In contrast, Holmes doesn't care either way about the human race; he is apathetic really. As noted above both are motivated by the desire to solve puzzles but for Holmes the puzzle is all that matters, nothing else. Contrarily, House really does prize other things in his life even if it's hard for him to admit such, like his friendship with Wilson (The Watson character of course is a friend of sorts for Holmes but more often serves as the latter's sounding board for bouncing ideas off of.) Also, House engages in a few romantic relationships as well as regularly keeps employed various call girls. Holmes, on the other hand, is likely asexual. Romance, sex, companionship of any kind doesn't factor in for Holmes noting succinctly in one episode that "Love is disadvantageous." This is particularly borne out in one my favorite episodes "A Scandal in Belgravia." This episode involves a woman who is in love with Holmes but whom he has to "play" in the end in order to solve the case. Upon this realization the woman asks Holmes if he ever felt anything for her to which he replies "Sorry. I was merely playing the game."* Again, it's only the puzzle that's of relevance to Holmes, the Great Game that moves him.

 But House's attempts to cultivate relationships of some kind, albeit badly, is largely what makes him a miserable person (House's constant leg pain is of course the other part that accounts for his misery.). And it's this misery that forms I think the most crucial difference between House and Holmes. This is because House's misery is what keeps him from being truly or purely rational. His reasoning faculties in other words are compromised by his perpetual misery. So far as we can tell no such thing exists for Holmes. The only time Holmes is probably miserable is when he doesn't have a puzzle worthy of his time to pursue. Therefore, it is Holmes who is the truer rationalist of the two since he's not hindered by those things, especially misery, that have compromised House's ability to reason.

Of course this means that House is the more human, the more realistic of the two and thus the more appealing for most. Yet for my part while I loved House if I had to make a preference between them or if I had to decide which I wanted to emulate more it would definitely be Holmes since he is the one who is truly and fully dominated by reason. Now, obviously Holmes is an ideal, and a fictional one at that. Thus I recognize that it is impossible not to be influenced by those pesky chemical reactions that produce emotions such as "love." Still, it's a laudable goal to aim for, namely, a life dictated by reason and not the passions. The passions, after all, are what ultimately create misery. And so if I can minimize their sway by trying as best I can to make reason my guide then all the better.

Ah, I've slipped into rambling now. Let's end with a couple of clips. The first is a clip from the brilliant BBC Sherlock in which Holmes and Watson meet for the first time. The second is one of my favorite sketches from the show that Hugh Laurie did with Stephen Fry called appropriately enough A Bit of Fry and Laurie. Enjoy. Bonus clip: Benedict Cumberbatch playing Hugh Laurie's son in a show called Fortysomething: *To be fair it is hinted at in the episode that Holmes does in fact feel something for this woman.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Brief, Random Thoughts on the French Revolution

A few days ago was Bastille Day, the anniversary of the French Revolution. Typically, I scoff at attempts to reduce history to simplistic explanations, but if I am forced to cite one event as in some sense the "cause" of the modern world then it would be the French Revolution.

The French Revolution ushered in a great transformation of the then exiting European international system, marked of course by a "balance of power" network. The revolution itself gave rise to Napoleon Bonaparte who single handedly decimated this traditional "balance of power" system that had held in Europe since 1648. And though the Congress of Vienna (1815) did briefly re-establish a "balance of power" system back to Europe after Napoleon's final defeat, it was sufficiently weak enough to allow for a resurgent and militaristic Prussia to begin its rise to great power status. Led by Otto von Bismark, who via three brief wars (1864, 1866, 1870/1) reunited the German confederations into one state, modern Germany came into being and almost immediately began to upset the existing wobbly "balance of power" dynamic in Europe. And driven by Great Power psychology, Germany would go on to antagonize the other powers eventually creating the conditions which led to WWI and the final collapse of the old "balance of power" system. And as I've already hinted elsewhere, I believe WWI was probably the most crucial pivot point for the modern world, something I plan to elaborate on in a future post.

In the end this analysis is of course overly simplistic and too broad in its generalizations. Nevertheless, I think it accurately captures the world changing character of the French Revolution. Moreover, I think the French Revolution was more monumental (and revolutionary!) than the American Revolution, even if the American revolution (perhaps more accurately, American "gradual evolution") did partly influence the French Revolution. Why? Well, simply put I think you could still have the American revolution without it ever leading to WWI and the birth of the modern world as we think of it and live in today. However, WWI was simply, in my opinion, unlikely to occur without that initial upheaval that the French Revolution brought to the European world order. In other words, no WWI without the French Revolution. So, anyways, happy (?) belatedvBastille Day!

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Do Men Cheat More Than Women?

It's not often that the BBCworldnews runs an article that disappoints me. Unfortunately the other day it did, one which was entitled "More or Less: The Maths of Infidelity." The thrust of the article was that even though it takes two to tango an American study found that more men than women admitted to having affairs ergo: men cheat more than women. Most won't see this as a profound or new conclusion since many seem to intuitively believe this anyways.


 Rubbish. My major problem with this view is that it suggests that cheating is innately gender specific, i.e., that males are simply hardwired to cheat more than females. Usually, evolution is then brought into play to account for why males supposedly have more of a propensity to cheat, namely, that since they have a more compelling desire to spread their genes they will have more of an inclination to seek out a multitude of mates. But this ignores the fact that female promiscuity is also prominent in the animal kingdom, especially among our closest living ancestors the great apes. (See for example the Bonobo.)

Curiously though the article didn't try to use evolutionary psychology to explain why men supposedly cheat more than women. Instead, it just threw out some abstract reasons: because men get lonely, because men get bored, because men aren't being sexually fulfilled, etc. The absurdity of these reasons should be clear: they apply equally as well to why some women might cheat also. Additionally, this article only cites one study that depends on the questionee answering truthfully. Perhaps then one could just as easily draw the conclusion from this study that women are simply better liars than men. In short, this article is in no way scientifically sound.

But why do so many people take it as a given that men cheat more than women? Well, because at one time this was certainly probably true, at least up until about 50 years ago. Now, however, there has been a major shift in women's roles in the last several decades that among other things has seen them take up a large portion of the workforce. In short women are not in the home all of the time anymore and so have more opportunities to, well, cheat if they so choose. In other words what I'm trying to get at is that cheating is something more contextual or situational and historically most women have had very confined roles, usually to the household. To put this in terms of the nature vs nurture debate I think cheating is not something innate within males to do (the nature position) but rather is something more environmentally produced (the nurture position) and thus can affect equally both males and females.

At any rate this is a fruitless question to ask since there's no way it can ever be answered with any kind of scientific probability. Still, I'm throwing the bullshit flag on this misguided but widely held belief that men are more prone to cheat than women. Hogswallow.

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

CSI Cretaceous Part 2


There is a major problem with the asteroid extinction hypothesis of the dinosaurs that fails to convince Bakker of its soundness. He notes that the fossil record when looked at more closely actually indicates something other than a sudden disappearance of dinosaurs. In fact, the fossil record shows a period of gradual decline in the evenness of dinosaur species beginning early in the Late Cretaceous. By "evenness" Bakker is referring to the ratio of one species to another. In most types of healthy ecosystems the varying species should be approximately equal to one another. It's once you have a disproportionate amount of one or two species over others that the ecosystem begins to degrade. Bakker found in the dinosaurs of the Lance faunas examples of a loss of evenness in the variety of dinosaur species some two million years before the end of the Cretaceous. For example, "the genus Triceratops made up 70 to 80 percent of the finds of large dinosaurs." (437)  In other words, several millions of years prior to the end of the Cretaceous there were many dinosaur species already in major decline, some extinct even. Thus, Bakker says, an asteroid impact occurring at the end of the Cretaceous can not fully explain the extinction of most dinosaurs. At best it might have served as "the coup de grace to a dying ecosystem already suffering from massive problems." ( 439)


Bakker's own solution has two interrelated components. For the first part of his explanation Bakker adopts what is known as the "drain-mix-and-cool theory of extinction for the ocean" or for short the "shallow seas theory." (439). This theory states that abnormally warm periods on earth cause shallow seas on land to drain off the continents into the ocean causing, paradoxically, an overall cooling trend for the planet. Bakker on the consequences of these changes for the ecosystem:

"The best answer for the extinction of the great sea animals is that their favorite haunts disappeared when the warm, shallow seas drained off the continents. And the best answer for the extinction of the open-water, deep sea creatures is that surface water becomes colder and more thoroughly mixed with deep water when the shallow seas drain off." (439)

 According to Bakker these changes are well documented. He asserts that climatologists have in fact determined that during the middle Cretaceous there were many shallow seas on the present day continents. (For example, present day North America during this period had a huge in land sea extending from the arctic down through central America. See picture to the right.) Moreover, they have also noted that towards the latter portion of the Cretaceous these shallow seas were in fact rapidly disappearing. So then we have a reasonable explanation for the extinction of some dinosaur species via documented climate changes. However, as Bakker notes this explanation is incomplete since the resulting overall cooling trend of the planet would likely not have killed off the big land dinosaurs that were not already in some fashion dependent on the inland seas.

Thus, the second component to Bakker's explanation:

"Let us observe the historical sequence that unfolds on the land during the mass extinctions. Shallow seas drain off, so that land areas once underwater become dry and regions that had been separated from each other become connected by land bridges or island chains. At the same time, mountain-building forces weaken so that there are fewer barriers dividing the terrestrial regions...But the net result is a more homogenized ecosystem where species can pass more easily from one end of a continent to another, and from one continent to another. Such easy intercontinental exchange can be found precisely at the end of the Cretaceous. Until late in the Cretaceous, Mongolia had supported quite a different fauna from that of North America. There were many advanced mammals and protoceratopsid dinosaurs in the Central Asiatic Highlands not found in Alberta, Montana, and Wyoming. But very late in the last epoch of the Cretaceous Period, the Asiatic mammals and dinosaurs began appearing in North America...Could such interchanges over the continents cause extinction?" (441-42)

Bakker answers in the affirmative noting that "one of the unshakable tenets of animal geography is that the most extreme consequences are possible when foreign species move into a new region." (442) Every species carries its own set of parasites and disease organisms that it has over time adapted to. But when these species are introduced into an area with other species that have never had any contact with such diseases and parasites the result is often the decimation of the latter. History offers many examples of this from the Black Plague (introduced from Asia to Europe), to the destruction wrought by Rinderpest (an Asian cattle disease introduced into Africa by Lord Kitchner), to the settling of Old World peoples with Old World diseases (such as smallpox) into the New World causing the devastation of the vast majority of New World populations, and many more. But the dangers of interspecies mixing doesn't just come from unfamiliar germs and bacteria. The introduction of larger animals into a new ecosystem can also wreak havoc as the Australians learned when rabbits, a relatively minor nuisance in Europe, were first brought to the land down under where they now have become a major pest doing much ecological harm to the Outback.

Likewise then with the dinosaurs concludes Bakker:

"The Late Cretaceous world contained all the prerequisites for this kind of disaster. The shallow oceans drained off and a series of extinctions ran through the saltwater world. A monumental immigration of Asian dinosaurs streamed into North America, while an equally grand migration of North American fauna moved into Asia. In ever region touched by this global intermixture, disasters large and small would occur. A foreign predator might suddenly thrive unchecked, slaughtering virtually defenseless prey as its populations multiplied beyond anything possible in its home habitat. But then the predator might suddenly disappear, victim of a disease for which it had no immunity. As species intermixed from all corners of the globe, the result could only have been global biogeographical chaos." (443)

(Note: this intermixing depends on the majority of dinosaurs being warm blooded; cold blooded animals would be unable to travel long distances.)

So to recap, Bakker's position on the extinction of most of the dinosaurs runs as follows:

1.) The fossil record indicates that millions of years before the end of the Cretaceous many dinosaurs species were declining, a few actually becoming extinct. An asteroid impact at the end of the Cretaceous cannot fully account for this data.

2.) In the latter part of the Cretaceous the shallow seas began to drain off the continents causing the extinction of major sea animals as well as opening up massive new areas of land travel.

3.) The resulted intermixing of new species of dinosaurs introduced various agents of extinction such as new germs, parasites, bacteria, etc, and other ecological changes that eventually killed off many of the dinosaurs.

4.) The remaining few species of dinosaurs (excepting a few) may have finally been killed by the impact of a heavenly body of some kind at the end of the Cretaceous.

I for one find Bakker's thesis very persuasive. However, while most of what Bakker put forward in this book has since become part of mainstream paleontology, his views on dinosaur extinction has, to my knowledge at least, yet to be wholly accepted. I suspect this is because Bakker's explanation is so mundane. Most dinosaurs died out because they mixed with other, previously, isolated species of dinosaurs?!  In other words, Bakker's explanation fails to dazzle us like the traditional view that most of the dinosaurs were killed off in one fell swoop by a gigantic asteroid. We prefer big, amazing explanations for things, especially mysteries. And for this reason I doubt many people will be convinced that most of the dinosaurs actually died off in a rather unexciting manner. Yet sometimes the truth, whether we like it or not, can be rather, well, banal.    

Saturday, May 19, 2012

CSI Cretaceous Part 1

Many posts ago I blogged about the present day genetic evidence which conclusively indicates that modern day birds are in fact descended from some of the very few dinosaurs that managed to survive the mass(?) extinction event(s?) that occurred at the end of the Cretaceous. Wanting to know more I picked up Robert T. Bakker's The Dinosaur Heresies which has turned out to be one of the better reads I have had so far this year.

Prior to writing this book Bakker along with a few other paleontologists had been challenging what had by mid-20th century become the orthodox position on dinosaurs. A view that represented dinosaurs as cold blooded, scaly, slow moving, and dim witted, i.e., reptiles par excellence. The thrust of Bakker's work was to show how this consensus was mostly wrong-headed, principally by arguing for the warm blooded nature of most dinosaurs. The Dinosaur Heresies then was meant to serve both as platform for getting these ideas out to the general public and as a place where Bakker could cumulatively present the evidence he had accrued through years of research. I'm no paleontologist of course but in my opinion Bakker succeeded on both counts.

But it doesn't really matter whether I found his arguments persuasive because since the book was first published in 1986 Bakker (and others) have been repeatedly vindicated so much so that what was then a revolutionary position has now become the general consensus among today's paleontologists. These ideas would come to influence Steven Spielberg with Bakker coming to serve as one of Jurassic Park's scientific advisers. Thankfully so since we might have been left with a plodding Tyrannosaurus rex who procured most of his food from scavenging rather than through hunting. The result would have been a decidedly less exciting film. (Note: there are still a few paleontologists who maintain that the T-rex was a scavenger. However, this remains a marginal view. Go here for more.)

The book itself is simply too rich to attempt a proper review here. Plus, I'm not really qualified to do so. But in the next couple of posts I want to talk about one chapter in the book that I found particularly illuminating.

One of the more fascinating mysteries when it comes to the dinosaurs has to do with their extinction. (Well, this is a bit of a misnomer since dinosaurs technically still exist as modern day crocs and birds.) Species of course come and go all the time, but what makes the extinction of the dinosaurs special according to Bakker is that "no new wave of species appeared to replace those that had died out." (436) And as Bakker notes the solutions given to this mystery have been many. Perhaps it's best to quote him at length here:

"...it is suggested that dinosaurs died out 'because the weather got too hot'; 'because the weather got too cold'; 'because the weather got too dry'; 'because the weather got too wet'; 'because the weather became too hot in the summer and too cold in the winter'; 'because the land became too hilly'; 'because new kinds of plants evolved which spread deadly diseases'; 'because new kinds of mammals evolved which competed for food'; 'because new kinds of mammals ate the dinosaur eggs'; 'because a giant meteor smashed into the earth'; 'because a supernova exploded near the earth'; 'because cosmic rays bombarded the earth'; or, 'because massive volcanoes exploded all around the earth.'" (425)

The view that came to be accepted in Bakker’s time and that is generally still held today (with some modification) is that a heavenly body of some kind, most likely an asteroid, impacted the earth some 65 million years ago wiping out most of the dinosaurs in one fell swoop. The primary evidence for this position has to do with a thin layer of iridium that features prominently in the geological record around the time of the end of the Cretaceous. This is significant because iridium is a noble metal that is “extremely rare on the earth’s surface, but much more abundant in celestial bodies such as meteors, asteroids, and dead stars.” (432) The idea then is that this iridium layer found in the geological record can best be explained by theorizing the impact on earth of a large extraterrestrial body some 65 million years ago that heaved up massive amounts of rich iridium clouds into the atmosphere which then eventually settled back onto the ground to form the iridium layer that geologists today have identified.

When this hypothesis is then viewed in light of the fossil record which indicates that most dinosaur species died out around the same time it’s hard not to see a correlation between the two. Additionally, mass extinction by an asteroid would explain why a few dinosaurs did manage to survive. For example, the ancestors of modern day crocodiles because of their cold blooded composition would have been able to hibernate so as to wait out the environmental changes such a collision would have caused. Similarly, small theropod dinosaurs and tiny mammals could have burrowed and waited out the changes as well only to later emerge and evolve into birds in the one case and our mammalian ancestors in the other. So then it is easy to see why this theory of dinosaur extinction has persuaded most and continues to be promulgated in various dinosaur media today.  

But there is a problem with this hypothesis that keeps a few like Bakker from fully adopting it. This, along with Bakker's peculiar solution, we will look at next time. 

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Learning to Take Seriously Israeli Fears of a Nuclear Iran

 The pursuit by Iran for nuclear power has been a festering issue for the International Community since at least the 1990's because it is widely believed that Iran would use any acquired nuclear capability chiefly for the purpose of developing nuclear weapons. But because Iran was thought to be light years away from even the first steps towards this goal (e.g., successful uranium enrichment) the IC's attention towards this potential flashpoint waxed and waned over the years. However, important events occurred after the millennium which helped to renew the IC's concern over Iranian nuclear ambitions.

First, of course, was 9/11 and the subsequent lumping of Iran by the Bush administration into the "axis of evil" category. (For some in the Bush administration this labeling of Iran as "evil" appeared to be justified as the post-Iraq war insurgency began to flare up and it was soon discovered that Iran, if not outright directing much of the sectarian violence by providing weapons and such, was at least encouraging much of it.) The second major development was the "election" of Ahmadenijad as the Iranian president who before long began to make many in the West, and especially in Israel, uneasy with his vitriolic speeches that among other things repeatedly denied the Holocaust and called for Israel to be "wiped off the map." And lastly recent intelligence estimates, particularly after 2007, seemed to indicate that Iran was closer to nuclear capability than previously thought. All of these factors combined to renew the IC's effort to bring pressure on Iran to forgo its nuclear ambitions. Surprisingly, a number of sanctions have been passed including a European oil embargo set to go into effect in June. (Unfortunately, it is likely that many European countries will find ever ingenious and elaborate ways to circumvent the embargo as they did with the Iraqi "Food for Oil" program in the 1990's.)

Obviously, the major concern by the IC is that the Israeli's are getting ever closer to preemptively striking Iranian nuclear sites. That this is highly probable is undeniable since the Israeli's have thus twice before acted (Iraq, 1981; Syria, 2007). Rightly, then, the world is concerned about the repercussions that would surely follow from an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Now for my own part, from the viewpoint of US strategic interests, permitting Iran nuclear weapon capability is probably not as problematic for the region as some suggest and would not directly affect the national security of this country. Therefore, I'm inclined to view the Iranian government as a "rational" actor on the international stage that wouldn't recklessly use its nuclear weapons. Of course this is not what many fear would happen if Iran had nuclear weapons. The more likely scenario is that Iran might smuggle nuclear weapons to one of their proxies such as Hezbollah or Hamas to use against Israel so that the IC could never officially link any use of nuclear weapons against Israel to Iran. Still, I think it is unlikely Iran would act in such a fashion.

But having said that I want to stress that it is important not to be glib about the security threat a nuclear Iran poses from the viewpoint of Israel. Israeli security calculations have to take this situation seriously because it has been in a position since 1948 of actual and virtual war which combined with the history of Jewish persecution that tragically culminated in the Holocaust has, quite understandably, developed into a national security consciousness with a strong existential flavor. Thus, asking the Israeli's to explain exactly how and why a nuclear Iran would be dangerous for the region is an irrelevant and meaningless question to put to them.

Also while many in the West have no problem shrugging off Ahmadenijad's speeches (specifically the ones that have called for "Israel to be wiped off the map") as mere rhetorical flourishes the Israeli's cannot afford to do this. That this is simply political grandstanding cannot (and should not) even factor into Israeli security calculations.

Usually, I'm cautious about using historical analogies since they are often misused, but if you remember Hitler gave a speech in 1938 which called for the "destruction of international Jewry". At that time, like Ahmadenijad's diatribes today, the speech was waved off as typical antisemitic blustering, exaggerated political sophistry. Then seven years later the world learned that Hitler had "succeeded" in destroying 1/3 of world Jewry.

So then the greater challenge isn't getting Iran to give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons but rather of getting the Israeli's to modulate their own security interests to coincide with those of the United States and the rest of the IC. But this will never happen. Rightly so Israel will act out of what it perceives is best for its own security, regardless of what the rest of the world believes it should do. As would the United States, as would any country for that matter. And therefore whether we disagree with the Israeli position or not concerning its fears of a nuclear Iran it is vitally important that we seek to understand that for Israel this is indeed an existential threat.

In short, no matter how vain or empty threats made towards the Israeli state by a country such as Iran might look to the IC, it is impossible for Israel NOT to take each and everyone of these seriously. Its own history demands such.

Thus, we need to be careful when discussing Israel's security concerns vis a vis Iran that we do not do so in a cavalier manner as, tragically, I've seen too many political commentators do. 

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Explaining the Success of Europe: A Review of Kenneth Pomeranz' "The Great Divergence"


A partial book review I wrote this year. Basically, more filler while I wrap up the semester:


The study of civilizations has been a favorite among “big history” historians. Examining the rise, decline, and fall of civilizations, teasing out their similarities and differences, and explaining why certain ones have evolved at a more rapid pace than others are all a part of the scrutiny historians have applied to this area of inquiry. Gibbon, Ranke, Spengler, and Toynbee are just a few of the classic names who have taken up this endeavor with gusto and with varying, indeed often conflicting, results. More recently, scholars such as William H. Mcneill have with equal enthusiasm continued this popular trend; the latter’s works, especially The Rise of the West, having influenced a number of historians such as Jared Diamond and Janet Abu-Lughod who’s much praised Before European Hegemony, at least judging by the author’s fulsome praise of Mcneill in the introduction and the abundant citations of his works in the book, owes much.                 

 Kenneth Pomeranz of UC-Irvine is another modern scholar who practices the study of civilizations. But Pomeranz’s goals are less “global” than the works of the previously mentioned historians. Specifically, Pomeranz aims to better understand why Europe vis a vis China (read: Asia) “became uniquely wealthy by the mid-nineteenth century” (31). And so it was without the slightest exaggeration that Pomeranz titled his book The Great Divergence since that phrase accurately captures the relative position of the two regions to one another by the middle of the nineteenth century. Pomeranz following another scholar (Eric Jones’ European Miracle) states that simply citing the Industrial Revolution is not an adequate explanation for the “great divergence” since it merely represents “the full flowering of differences that had been more subtly building for centuries” (Ibid).                                                                                                          

 Pomeranz first examines some of the other theories that have been put forward to explain such a state of events only to knock most of them down. For example, the abundance of livestock is often used to explain the gulf between Europe and China, but Pomeranz notes that in Asia the lack of a plethora of livestock, particularly large beasts of burden, made little difference since “rice farming simply does not require as much animal power” (33). Likewise, Pomeranz dismisses a possible European advantage in transportation noting that “the remarkable development of water transport in China and Japan surely offset this and represented at least an equally valuable form of capital in transport” (34). Pomeranz does the same with birthrates claiming that “it appears that various groups of Asians were at least as able and determined as any Europeans to keep birthrates down” (41).  Technological innovation is treated as well with Pomeranz showing that even here the differences were not initially so vast with Asia actually being ahead of Europe in many areas such as irrigation, textile weaving and dyeing, the manufacturing of porcelain, public health, etc. (45, 46).  Pomeranz also tackles other theories such as the place of higher wages (52-54) in the debate and at least here does give some value to the innovations made by Europe in spinning that certainly played a part in widening the gap between the two civilizations.                                                                                        

 Pomeranz’s own theory and explanation is partly ecological. He thinks the European achievement was due in large part to its ability to achieve “self-sustaining growth” (57) to which the adoption of certain New World crops such as the potato (because of its excellent calorie yield to acre usage ratio) was vital. Furthermore, Europeans began to apply scientific principles to land conversation and began to achieve a better understanding of how essential forests are to the ecosystem much of which was learned from tropical European colonies (58). Thus, “empire” in Pomeranz’s thinking assumes a crucial role here.                                                                               

The second part of Pomeranz’s theory is geographical: the location of rich coal deposits in Europe, specifically northern England played a crucial role in fostering the great divergence. On this score Pomeranz is blunt stating that “Europe’s advantage rested…on geographic accident” (62). (Related to this was the perfection of the steam engine which was of the utmost importance in the extraction of coal.) And while Northern China did have a major source of coal Pomeranz asserts that invasions by foreign groups such as the Mongols, civil wars, enormous floods, and other series of catastrophes all resulted in the Chinese never being able to fully exploit this major resource.                                                                                                                    
  So then Pomeranz believes that “the great divergence” between Europe and Asia was due to the former’s advantage being gained from its imperial adventures and its fortuitous geographical position in an area of rich resources, namely, coal.                                                                       

 Pomeranz’s emphasis on empire and geography is similar to that which can be found in Jared Diamond’s overly praised Guns, Germs, and Steel. I myself wasn’t particularly sold on the thrust of that book’s argument, and though Pomeranz makes a similar one here he does so in a more persuasive fashion than did Diamond. I have no doubt that empire and geography played an important role in creating a divergence between the West and other areas of civilizations. My problem with Pomeranz isn’t that his analysis his faulty since I think he was right about much of what he said only that it is incomplete. Missing from Pomeranz’s discussion is the place ideas might have had in helping to create such a divergence.  Examples of revolutionary ideas in the West that I think played a significant part in vaulting that region ahead of others include vital developments in political theory such as the Lockean notion of property and in economic theory such as that propounded by Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations to give just two possible examples.                                                                                                                                   

 Now, I completely understand why some might not want to focus on the role of ideas or “intellectual capital” since in the past this tended to be the sole focus made by other scholars that often was abused to suggest that the West was superior to other cultures, an implication many today rightly dismiss. (Niall Ferguson might possibly be a modern voice of such a view.) Because of this fear it seems to me that the discussion has tipped completely to the other side in favor of examining other factors that would seem to, at least initially, give civilizations an ontological value equal to one another so that potentially uncomfortable implications might be avoided. While understandable I think such a position is egregious since it appears to me to rule out at the very beginning of the discussion any part that ideas might have had in helping to create this “divergence”.  Historical study demands a certain kind of exactitude that is being ignored when we focus on only some factors and completely rule out others.                                                                   

 Perhaps this is simply the nature of “big history”, i.e., because the study of civilizations is such a vast enterprise one is tempted to be less comprehensive than one ought to be. Nevertheless, comprehensiveness should be the goal. How ironic it is then that so many “big historians” tend to suffer from an acute case of myopia

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

My Research Paper: 'A Place in the Sun': The Effect of Great Power Psychology on German Weltpolitik in the Wilhelmine Era


The reason for the lack of posts in the past two months is because I have been burdened with my first research paper in three years. But it's now done. For the curious, here is what I've been laboring on for the last couple of months. It concerns the effect of Great Power psychology on German foreign policy before World War I.


'A Place in the Sun': The Effect of Great Power Psychology on German Weltpolitik in the Wilhelmine Era




From 1815 until 1914 something truly remarkable occurred or rather didn't occur, namely, for a century there was no general European war. Now, obviously there were various conflicts that took place during this period, most notably the Italian and German wars of unification, but many of these were localized incidents involving two, at most three powers. What is meant by the above statement is that there was never a conflict that developed into a wider European war during this period.1 This was indeed a unique development given the history of European international relations prior to the 19th century. The Concert of Europe that had formed out of the Congress of Vienna (the peace settlement that definitively ended the Napoleonic wars) astoundingly maintained peace for a hundred years.2 It took the outbreak of the First World War to finally put an end to this peace, effectively shattering European civilization in the process.

And precisely because this war was so world-shattering the desire to apportion “blame” to one or more of its participants emerged quickly after the war's end. There thus arose a pervasive dogmatism in the subsequent study of the causes of the First World War which in certain respects still plagues this popular area of historical inquiry. In this respect, the passionate desire of historians to ascertain the causes of the Great War has had no rival within the sub-field of international history that has traditionally concerned itself with the study of the origins of conflicts.3 In the years since the war there has been a proliferation of reasons cited as the primary cause ranging from the sensible (incendiary Balkans problem, rise of Anglo-German antagonism, great power war mobilization plans, etc) to the less probable (secret treaties, entangling alliances, domestic problems), to the conspiratorial (manipulation of the international system by Jewish financiers).4

But in spite of these differences there has been a general tendency to emphasize the role of Empire as being a contributing factor in causing World War I because of the part the imperial system played in the breakdown of the balance of power system in Europe that had generally been maintained since Vienna.5 It was with good reason that the historian Eric Hobsbawm entitled the second part of his classic trilogy The Age of Empire for it is an accurate description of the several decades preceding the war.6 This period witnessed the infamous “scramble for Africa”, the penetration and exploitation of China, the height of the “Great Game” between Russia and Great Britain, and more. In fact between the brief period of 1860 and 1914 the great powers amassed more colonies than in any of the previous centuries combined since the 16th century.7

The belated participant in this “Age of Empire” was most notably Germany which had only relatively recently in terms of European history become a nation in 1871 under the great Prussian statesman Otto von Bismark. And except for a brief period (1884-1885) Germany under the direction of Chancellor Bismark mostly refrained from the imperial dash then being made by the other powers because in Bismark’s words the new German nation was “a satiated power.”8 But the accession of Wihelm II to the position of new German Kaiser in 1888 changed this. After forcing Bismark’s resignation over a domestic dispute, Wilhelm began to exercise more control over Germany’s foreign policy, eventually ushering in the so-called “New Course” (1890-1896) and Weltpolitik9 (world policy; 1897-1914) eras.10 Germany, Kaiser Wihelm asserted, deserved “a place in the sun”11 with the other great European powers.12 This meant among other things a renewed focus on the acquisition of colonies, the buildup of a major naval force, the right to arbitration in international disputes, and a general acknowledgment of Germany's status as a Great Power.

But besides the drive for obvious concrete imperial aims the primary motivation underlying Germany's determined pursuit of Weltpolitik was at bottom psychological. In fact, I would argue that at this period in history being an imperial power from the perspective of a belated country such as Germany was a function of “Great Power Psychology”. That is, to be a Great Power was to have an empire; to have an empire was to be a Great Power. Thus, Germany's imperial desires were more about the non-tangible aspects of being a Great Power and less about the actual finite gains to be had from acquiring and maintaining an Empire. In other words having an Empire functioned as a kind of status symbol that indicated one was in fact a Great Power.

Now of course there clearly were economic incentives driving much of Germany's foreign actions and adventures during the Wilhemine period; I do not deny such. Indeed Germany's fated geographic position as a central European power necessitated a certain degree of expansion if it wished to continue to rise as an economic force on the continent of Europe. My point is one of emphasis: the course that German Weltpolitik was to endeavor upon was more about power prestige and status as a Great Power and less about the physical gains to be had from, say, the possession of colonies or the build up of a great navy.

Now, anyone who has engaged in even a cursory study of the origins of the First World War knows that German Weltpolitik and its relation, if any, to the cause of World War I has been treated ad naseum. But the focus has tended to be on German aims of the more traditional, that is to say, physical elements of Empire and how such a reckless pursuit of these goals created a hostile environment between the other major powers vis a vis Germany. The purpose of this paper is not to call this standard interpretation into question but rather to isolate the psychological aspect of Empire that involves Great Power status and to show how this in turn informed and shaped the course of German foreign policy in the decades before the Great War. To draw this out necessitates examining German foreign policy during this time period in three specific though related areas that were briefly mentioned above, namely, the desire for colonies, a naval force, and the right to arbitration and/or consultation in international disputes. 13

We turn first to the most obvious marker of Empire and Great Power status: the possession of colonies.

The German Colonial Bid
The Franco-Prussian war was truly a watershed moment in the history of Germany. Its conclusion brought about the unification of the various German states (save Austria) principally under the direction of the “Iron and Blood” statesman Otto von Bismark who became the German chancellor in the Spring of 1871. 14 While the Age of Empire was just beginning Bismark was busy consolidating the new position of the second German Reich and so initially refused to have anything to do with the most recent surge in colonial activity then being conducted by the other European powers, repeatedly declaring on more than one occasion, “I am no man of colonies.”15 Moreover, in a famous incident Bismark purportedly told a German explorer of Africa, “Here is Russia and here is France, with Germany in the middle. That is my map of Africa.”16

But for reasons that remain somewhat obscure Bismark altered course and the first colonies obtained by Germany in the years 1884-1885 were done so under his approval.17 These were the Cameroons in west central Africa, a strip of territory in German south-west Africa, and a northern portion of New Guinea. There were a few other minor colonial gains made during this period but eventually Bismark soured on the whole enterprise and reverted back to an anti-colonial policy. It would take Bismark's dismissal and the rise to prominence of Kaiser Wilhelm II to renew a German push for colonies. As noted before these changes occurred in 1890. Oddly enough, however, Germany's renewed bid for colonial territory began rather benignly, namely, with the signing of an agreement with England that gave to Germany a small North Sea archipelago called Heligoland in exchange for some previously disputed territory in East Africa (Zanzibar).18 But this proved to be the high point of Anglo-German relations during this so called “New Course” period because for various reasons that we will return to later Anglo-German relations deteriorated rapidly thereafter, leading to a pronounced antagonism between the two powers that would last until the outbreak of world war.19 Nevertheless, Germany continued to acquire territories, especially in South East Asia, in these first few years of undisputed Wilhelmine rule.20 Most notably was the seizure in 189721 of the Chinese port Kiao-Chow, ostensibly in response to the murder of two German missionaries in the Shantung province.22

In the remaining years from 1900-1914 Germany continued to make small grabs in Asia and Africa; the last remaining portions of Africa that Germany received came about because of an international crisis over Morocco (which will be examined in more detail later) and as the result of the outcome of Anglo-German negotiations over the status of Portuguese colonies in Africa.23

On paper Germany's colonial possessions appeared impressive, but in reality none of the acquired territory, with the possible exception of the Heligoland, were of any real economic or strategic value. This fact is partly supported by the general ease with which the powers, especially Great Britain, made colonial concessions to Germany over this time period. In short by the time Germany thrust itself upon the colonial scene the pickings were slim. What one high official in the German office exclaimed upon learning of the possession of Samoa that “it was not worth the money spent upon telegrams to and from Apia”24 could be said of the entire German colonial venture upon the eve of World War I. Indeed much of the hostility that Germany's colonial policy was to create was due to the fact that Wilhem and the German foreign office understood that if they were to obtain any territory of actual value they would most likely have to do so in a manner that could only be perceived by the other powers as aggressive. But Germany pressed on all the same.

Clearly then there was more to German colonial aims than simply the physical acquisition of territory for economic and/or strategic gain. Great Power psychology provides the explantion. Germany sought to emulate the other Great Powers and understood that a strong marker of Great Power status was the possession of colonies. If the second Reich was to truly take its place as great power then the control of foreign lands was a sine qua non. Therefore, Great Power psychology compelled Germany to seize foreign lands, regardless of their value. So Hobsbawm: “Once the status of a great power thus became associated with raising its flag over some palm-fringed beach...the acquisition of colonies itself became a status symbol, irrespective of their value.”25

But of course to have colonies requires the building and maintaining of some kind of navy and so it is to Germany's naval ambitions that we now turn.

German Naval Policy
Wilhelm's vital role in the formation of a powerful German navy cannot be overstated. The Kaiser harbored a personal fascination for navies originating with his childhood when he used to look upon the British Royal Navy fleet with awe and reverence.26 His own personal passion for navies “was the customary blend of absurdity and energetic enthusiasm” often exhibited for example by Wilhelm's donning of an admiral's uniform in public, his obsession with learning the technical details of British Royal Navy ships, and his repeated readings of Alfred Thayer Mahan's influential maritime study The Influence of Sea Power Upon History.27 Thus as Germany rose in power it was no accident that Wilhelm decided the country needed a strong navy. Furthermore, this navy was to be the instrument, or perhaps more correctly, the enforcer of Wilhemine Weltpolitik.

The most important decision Wilhelm was to make on this score was the appointment in 1897 of Rear Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz to the position of State Secretary for the Imperial Navy Office.28 Through shrewd political maneuvering Tirpitz successfully was able to pass in the Reichstag the Navy Law of 1898 and a supplement to that law in 1900, a moment in German history nearly on par with that of unification.29 Why? Because as the historian Jonathan Steinberg notes “the Navy Law of 1898 was no ordinary piece of military legislation. It began a new era. The emphasis in German military affairs shifted dramatically from the land to the sea.”30 The Law itself increased the size of the current German naval fleet by seven battle ships, two heavy cruisers, and seven light cruisers.31 The modern German battle fleet had been birthed.

This newly created German battle fleet found an immediate use during the 1902-03 Venezuelan Affair when as part of an Anglo-German blockade that was meant to pressure Venezuela into settling its debts with foreign creditors the German Navy recklessly bombarded a port in the country to the angry outcry of the United States.32 But the United States weren't the only ones to be alarmed by the existence and actions of this new component of Weltpolitik.

For centuries a central tenet of British foreign policy had been the preservation of British Royal Naval supremacy in the seas based first of course on security for the Homeland because of its geographical handicap as an island nation and second as an instrument of protection for its widely flung colonies.33 Therefore, any perceived attempt to change or challenge British naval supremacy would immediately be construed as a threat by Great Britain. And so not surprisingly Great Britain began to interpret German naval development in such a fashion.34 This resulted in a naval arms race between the two powers with the result that by 1912 England came out just slightly ahead in the number of its Dreadnought class battle ships versus similar German versions.35 This naval arms race between England and Germany did more to create hostility between the two powers than did any other factor before the First World War.36

Surely Germany knew that their Flottenpolitik or naval policies would antagonize the British? Most definitely. In fact, the Navy Law of 1898 was from the very beginning designed as a measure against England in that it was intended to challenge Great Britain's traditional mastery of the seas.37
So what then explains Germany's apparently heedless Flottenpolitik? That there were clearly economic interests which influenced the desire for the development of a strong German navy cannot be denied.38 By the mid 1890's Germany's industry and trade were at an all time high, and so an interpretation which concludes that Germany desired a navy in particular to safe guard these new gains and other economic interests such as their recently acquired colonies is a reasonable one. But even here Great Power psychology provides an explanation for the reckless naval actions of Germany after 1897.

It is impossible to convey in this short paper the impact that Alfred Thayer's Mahan's The Influence of Sea Power Upon History had on the nations at the time of its publication in 1890.39 I have already mentioned the profound spell it cast upon Wilhelm. But the book's influence penetrated Tirpitz as well who had 2,000 copies of the book translated into German and distributed as part of his political campaign for the passage of the Reichstag Navy Law.40 The central message that figures like Wilhelm, Tirpitz, and others took from Mahan's book was this: to be a Great Power was to have a great navy.

This belief in a necessary linkage between Great Power status and naval dominance influenced the naval policies of German Weltpolitik more than economic forces when you consider two things (1) what came to be the German navy was primarily composed of battle ships which is important because if the drive to build a navy was born out of a need solely to protect commercial interests then the focus would have been on the building of primarily fast cruisers and (2) as mentioned above Germany's Navy Laws were designed specifically to challenge Great Britain's mastery over the seas which again makes no sense if purely economic motives were the main cause in Germany's desire for a great navy. Therefore, just as in the case of its pursuit of colonies, likewise the creation of a great navy was for Germany an effect of the Great Power psychology that pervaded the international system at this period in history. Steinberg perhaps conveys this better when he states that, “the gunboat and the battle fleet joined the more traditional devices of diplomacy, and the possession of a presentable fleet became the hall-mark of international respectability.”41

But in addition to having colonies and a great navy being an imperial power was also about the right to engage in international disputes and crises, the next and last category to be examined.

German Right to Inclusion on the International Stage: The Moroccan Crises
One of the first instances of Germany flexing its Weltpolitik on the world scene was the Venezuelan Affair of 1902-03 that I have already briefly mentioned. But this incident had the result of really only antagonizing one power, namely, the United States, since it was seen by Washington as a blatant violation of its Monroe Doctrine.42 Moreover, it was an affair that was smoothed over quite rapidly with no lasting repercussions on the international community and therefore was soon forgotten.43 The same cannot be said for the two Moroccan crises that were to follow.44
In late March of 1905 on the pretext of settling certain grievances that the German government supposedly had with Morocco, Kaiser Wilhelm landed his personal cruiser in the port of Tangier thus precipitating the first Moroccan crisis.45 In reality, then Chancellor Bulow convinced the Kaiser to land in Morocco because Germany had learned of secret talks between France and Great Britain concerning Moroccan issues that had remained latent for some time.46 These talks were rightly viewed by Germany as a violation of the 1880 Madrid Convention which stated that any future issues arising in regards to the “Moroccan Question” must be consulted with all of the participants of that accord which had included Germany.47

Early in the crisis, Germany earned a diplomatic victory with the forced resignation of French foreign minister Declasse48, but Germany soon botched this success by, first, refusing to negotiate directly with the French, instead calling for a general conference to discuss the “Moroccan Question”49, and then, second, by failing to develop any clear goals that it wished to achieve out of the crisis.50 The result was that Germany came off looking the aggressor because as the historian John Lowe aptly states the other European powers saw clearly that German actions “had every intention of making a drama out of a crisis.”51 And so at the Algeciras Conference of 1906 only Morocco and Austria-Hungary backed the German government.52 The Germans were left with a vague promise of protection of their commercial rights while the French position and influence in Morocco was actually enhanced.53 It was a humiliating defeat for Germany.

In the intervening years between this first Moroccan crisis and the next, Germany and France made some attempts at a modus vivendi, eventually resulting in the Franco-German Accord of 1909 in which Germany recognized France's special political interests in Morocco in return for more economic rights in the country.54 But the “Moroccan Question” was soon hurled back onto the world stage when an uprising against the Sultan provided France with an opportunity to occupy the capital of Fez under the pretext of protecting French nationals. The German response was rapid: the new foreign secretary Kiderlen-Waechter ordered a ship to land at the southern port of Agadir on July 1 of 1911; the famous so called “Panther's leap to Agadir”. 55 The second Moroccan crisis was thus ignited.56

Initially, the second Moroccan crisis played out in similar fashion to the first with the other powers generally at first sympathetic to Germany's grievance against France's violation of their 1909 accord. But under Foreign Minister Kiderlen's direction German moves soon became hostile and after a week the German government was demanding colonial concessions from France, particularly in the vaguely defined “Congo” region.57 These demands coupled with Germany's continued intransigence over the negotiations outraged the other powers, especially Great Britain who by this point had definitively cast off its 19th century isolationist disposition.58

The first Moroccan crisis and the naval arms race had done much to antagonize Great Britain so that by the time it was clear that Germany was once again the aggressor in the second Moroccan crisis, Great Britain firmly gave its support to the French throughout the affair.59 The result was yet another conference in which Germany was forced to significantly moderate its claims against the staunch united opposition of the other powers, coming away with only a small sliver of French Congolese territory.60 France on the other hand was finally given their long sought after protectorate over the country, the very thing Germany had been trying to prevent since even before the first Moroccan crisis. And so once again Germany was faced with a national humiliation.

The Moroccan crises were to have a profound effect on the climate of international relations, probably more so than did Germany's sometimes aggressive pursuit of colonies or its reckless naval arms race with Great Britain. Though speaking specifically in reference to the consequences of the first Moroccan crisis, Anderson's comments that the actions of Germany “reverberated like the distant rumblings of canon” across the whole of Europe applies just as appropriately to both crises.
There are usually two explanations given for the actions of the German government in both of the Moroccan crises: (1) Germany aimed at a disruption of the Anglo-French entente61, and (2) Germany thought it could leverage itself to acquire more colonial territory. The latter explanation has the least explanatory power since during the first Moroccan crisis there were never any colonial demands put forward by Germany.62 And though during the second crisis Germany did demand colonial concessions ultimately securing a small portion of central African territory, it is far from clear that this was the primary motive behind Kiderlen's actions. That this was apparently the case seems borne out by the fact that there was a full week between the “Panther's leap at Agadir” and Kiderlen's first demand for some kind of colonial compensation.63 Furthermore, even when a demand was finally made it took some time before any definable desired colonial territory was put forth.64 Thus, I suspect that Kiderlen only knew that he had to come out of this crisis with some kind of tangible gain so as to avoid a repeat of the first Moroccan crisis, but that he did not at first have a clear notion of what form this demand would take, hence his preliminary explanation for the seizing of Agadir as a “clenched pledge” for an undefined future compensation of some sort.65

However, the first explanation, namely, that Germany was attempting to split the Anglo-French entente has considerable merit. This entente combined with (1) the Anglo-Russian accord of 1907 that “settled” the grievances between Russia and England over their “Great Game” in central and eastern Asia, and (2) the continued deterioration of Russo-German relations, chiefly over the festering Balkans problem, led to a growing feeling of “encirclement” in Germany.66 Thus it is quite reasonable that Germany would try to alleviate this problem by attempting to break up the various ententes by whatever means, short of war, it believed necessary.67

Therefore, while there is some truth to the above explanations regarding German actions in these crises, the best explanation for German motives nevertheless remains the simpler one: Germany acted as it did because of Great Power psychology. This is clear when you consider that what sparked both affairs was French refusal to acknowledge Germany's right to partake in the larger “Moroccan Question.” Still, Germany's conduct was “only superficially about Morocco.”68 The greater crime from Germany's perspective was its belief that the French refusal to recognize its commercial rights in Morocco was really a refusal to acknowledge its status as a great power with the right to inclusion in international affairs. In other words, Germany objected and acted for reasons of prestige.69 To simplify further, French actions appeared to indicate to Germany that France did not recognize it as a Great Power.
 
And so Germany thrust itself into the ports of Tangier and Agadir because of a perceived diminution of its Great Power status. Additionally, that Germany's underlying motive was psychological is further indicated by the feckless way it conducted its diplomacy thereafter, only in the latter crisis eventually formulating a concrete demand. In both crises Germany wanted some way to humiliate France but “could find no operational expression for that objective.”70 Indeed, once Germany had dramatically acted it didn't have much of an inkling of what it hoped to achieve from the crises except a recognition of some kind that it was Great Power worthy to be consulted in international matters. Therefore, just as with the pursuit of colonies and the building of a great navy, German action in both of the Moroccan crises was ultimately motivated by Great Power psychology.71 .

Conclusion
The purpose of this paper has been to show how in three specific but interconnected areas of German Weltpolitik, namely, colonial aims, naval ambitions, and the right to a role in international affairs was driven by the Great Power mindset that had come to saturate the international scene in this “Age of Empire”. However, again, this is not to deny the role of other factors, especially economic and domestic ones, that was surely a component in the development of German Weltpolitik. The analysis used here has been chiefly one in line with a macro study of history. Thus, there has resulted an inevitable tendency towards simplification in this paper that could not be avoided. So I want to stress that German Weltpolitik was a much more complex phenomenon than the impression that has been given here.

Nonetheless, this examination of Germany's approach to three common features generally associated with an imperial power during this time period indicate how the psychological drive to acquire Great Power status and prestige underlay the actions of German Weltpolitik. While at times other impersonal forces may have slightly altered German foreign policy it was the compulsory, almost atavistic desire to imitate the other Great Powers that kept German Weltpolitik on what would turn out to be a crash course.

Germany because it entered into the Age of Empire so late was like a kid trying to mature too quickly because it badly wanted to be like the grown ups surrounding it. The trouble was that except for under Bismark, Germany never developed a wise and mature foreign policy with which to engage the other Great Powers.72 Beyond the superficial Great Power status symbols discussed above in this paper German Weltpolitik never acquired any other concrete aims. And because of this German diplomacy, even when it had no bearing on the three aspects of Empire discussed here, often came across to the other powers as curt and abrasive. The result was that German foreign policy gained a European reputation for being motivated by a “dangerous irrationality.”73 And so not surprisingly Germany's foreign policy increasingly became viewed by the others as uniformly aggressive, a factor which definitely contributed to the outbreak of world war in 1914.

To sum up, once Germany had set itself on the path of becoming a Great Power it was only natural that it would develop a desire for “a place in the sun.” Yet unfortunately as the late diplomatic historian A.J.P. Taylor notes, “by this they meant someone else's place in the sun, their own having become too hot.”74


1The Crimean War (1854-56) is sometimes cited as an exception but aside from a few battles on the Crimean peninsula this war was chiefly a naval one.
2Hence Henry Kissinger's appropriately named study, A World Restored: Metternich, Castlereagh and the Problems of Peace, 1812-1822 (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1957). I should note that the Concert of Europe actually broke up with the Crimean War. Bismark's European system would eventually take over this role. Therefore, it is actually more accurate to say that the Concert of Europe and the Bismarkian Order maintained a general peace for nearly a hundred of years in Europe.
3The possible exception being the study of the origins of the Franco-Prussian War (1870/71) that resulted in the unification of Germany. However, I would argue that the dogmatism that has surrounded this discussion is itself directly related to the question of Germany's role in causing World War I since it is often argued that if Germany had never become united it likely would not have gone on to become the key power to disrupt the European balance of power system. For a helpful discussion of these issues see further The Unification of Germany 1848-1871, ed. Otto Pflanze (Malabar, FL: Robert E. Krieger Publishing Co., 1968), especially 69-80; also see David Wetzel, A Duel of Giants: Bismark, Napoleon III, and the Origins of the Franco-Prussian War (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 2001).
4The controversial nature of this topic typically arises from the question of German war guilt as supposedly originating from the so called “war guilt” clause of the Treaty of Versailles (the document itself does not actually use this phrase). This question then took on a new dimension after the demise of Nazi Germany with post-war scholarship increasingly concerning itself with issue of continuity in German history. The publication of Fritz Fischer's controversial Germany's War Aims in the First World War (New York: W.W. Norton, 1967) significantly intensified the debate. For a helpful survey consult Niall Ferguson, “Germany and the Origins of the First World War: New Perspectives in The Historical Journal, Vol. 35, No.3 (Sep., 1992), 725-52; and Annika Mombauer, The Origins of the First World War: Controversies and Consensus(London: Longman, 2002), particularly 127-74 for the impact and controversy concerning the Fischer thesis.
5The connection between imperialism and World War I is as old as the war itself having been famously put forth by Lenin while the war was still raging and some would say having been anticipated by J.A. Hobson's classic work Imperialism: A Study (London: Nisbit and Co. Limited, 1902; reprint 2010). See further William L. Langer, “A Critique of Imperialism” in Foreign Affairs, vol. 14, No. 1 (Oct., 1935), 102-19, for a concise though somewhat dated examination of Hobson's study.
6The Age of Empire (New York: Vintage Books, 1987).
7Hobson, Imperialism, 15-29.
8As quoted in A.J.P. Taylor, Bismark: The Man and the Statesman (New York: Vintage Publishing, 1967), 129.
9For a detailed examination of Weltpolitik, see C.M. Andrew, “Weltpolitik and the Reshaping of the Duel Alliance”, Journal of Contemporary History, vol.1 (1966).
10 For the sake of precision I should state that though Wilhelm did indeed exert a significant degree of control over Germany's foreign policy he was not its sole mover since both the foreign minister (and later Chancellor) Bulow and State Secretary Holstein were factors, though limited ones, in determining the direction that German Weltpoltik was to take, especially after 1900. See William Young, German Diplomatic Relations 1871-1945 (New York: iUniverse Inc., 2006), 74-103. On the unique personality of Wilhelm II refer to Gordon Craig, Germany 1866-1945 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1978), 224-27.
11Quoted in Mombauer, The Origins of the First World War, 4.
12Young, German Diplomatic Relations, 85.
13The degree to which German domestic politics (Innenpolitik) and other impersonal forces influenced and determined the course of Germany's foreign policy during the Wilhemine era cannot be treated here. That domestic concerns played a part in the development of German Weltpolitik seems certain but ascertaining to what degree has generated a seemingly endless debate in and of itself in the study of German history. For a concise survey of domestic interpretations of Wilhemine foreign policy see John Lowe, The Great Powers, Imperialism, and the German Problem 1865-1925 (London and New York: Routledge), 143-49.
14Wilhem I was crowned German emperor on January 26th 1871.
15As quoted in Taylor, Bismark, 215.
16Ibid, 221.
17Divining the reasons behind Bismark's sudden reversal of policy concerning colonies has generated much debate. That it was partially a response to nationalist fervor for colonies seems the only thing agreed upon. For an accessible discussion refer to S. Foester, W.J. Mommsen, and R. Robinson, eds., Bismark, Europe, and Africa (London, 1988). For an interpretation that stresses the primacy of domestic factors in changing Bismark's mind, see H.U. Wehler, “Bismark's Imperialism 1862-1890” in Past and Present, no. 48 (August, 1970), and Paul M. Kennedy, “German Colonial Expansion. Has the 'Manipulated Social Imperialism' Been Ante-Dated? in Past & Present, No. 54 (Feb., 1972) for a critique of this emphasis. A.J.P. Taylor's older interpretation as systematically presented in his short work Germany's First Bid for Colonies, 1884-1885: A Move in Bismark's European Policy (New York: W.W. Norton and Co. Inc.) that Bismark changed his colonial policy as a means of forging a possible detente with France by antagonizing Britain over colonial issues (“A grievance had to be created, and Bismark turned to the colonial topics, which he had hitherto despised”, 23) gets dismissed today too quickly. Note for example Paul Kennedy's remarks in idem, 135. Though Taylor's diplomatic heavy interpretation has its problems I think it still has some merit. Kennedy's own interpretation that Bismark gradually changed his policy in response to “controlling territories where German traders were active” (idem, 135) is sensible; see further the author's The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism 1860-1914 (New York: Humanity Books, 1980), 167-84 for a further elaboration of this viewpoint.
18For background on the Heligoland-Zanzibar Treaty see William L. Langer, The Diplomacy of Imperialism 1890-1902, 2nd ed (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1951), 5-8; A.J. P. Taylor, The Struggle for Mastery in Europe (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1954), 328-30.
19So the aptly named comprehensive study of Kennedy, The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism.
20Specifically in Samoa. See Langer, Diplomacy of Imperialism, 620ff; Paul Kennedy, The Samoan Tangle: A Study in Anglo-German-American Relations, 1878-1900 (Dublin/New York, 1974).
21This seizure along with the beginnings of the naval buildup and the start of the Bulow chancellorship with Holstein as state secretary usually marks the beginnings of the Weltpolitik era. Taylor goes so far as to say that Bulow “was the symbol of world policy”; The Struggle for Mastery, 373.
22Lowe, Great Powers, Imperialism, and the German Problem, 115.Lowe's remarks that this was probably not a part of German Weltpolitik but an aberration designed to impress German public opinion seems to me off the mark. Long before the crisis Admiral Tirpitz had marked out this territory as a suitable port for Germany's future navy that he was to eventually spearhead. And so even before these two missionaries were killed both Tirpitz and the Kaiser already had designs on this portion of Chinese territory. Therefore, it seems clear to me that grabbing Kiao-Chow was more than just about impressing public opinion though it was no doubt in part meant to do such. Though note the rhetoric of the Kaiser's remarks as quoted in Langer, Diplomacy, 451: “I am firmly determined to give up our over-cautious policy which is regarded as weak throughout eastern Asia, and to demonstrate through the use of sternness if necessary of the most brutal ruthlessness toward the Chinese, that the German emperor cannot be trifled with.”
23On the Portuguese negotiations see Taylor, Struggle, 481; and Zara S. Steiner and Keith Neilson, Britain and the Origins of the First World War, 2nd ed (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003), 111-13. These negotiations were one of the last attempts before the war to achieve a detente between the two countries.
24Quoted in Langer, Diplomacy, 624.
25Age of Empire, 67. Likewise, A.J.P. Taylor's comments in The Course of German History (London: Routledge Classics, 2002), 155, “Their only purpose was emotional, an inadequate safety valve for the growing desire that united Germany, as a Great Power, should display all the characteristics of greatness shown by others.”
26Hew Strachan, The First World War Volume I: To Arms (New York: Oxford, 2001), 11.
27Ibid.
28Young, German Diplomatic Relations, 85.
29The reason the passage of the Navy Law of 1898 and its 1890 supplement was such a noteworthy political success is because Tirpitz was able to overcome the traditional strong opposition to a large navy that some of the conservative elements within German society, especially the Prussian army, had historically held towards such a project. For a full survey of the birth of the German Navy and Tirpitz's role in its creation see Jonathan Steinberg, Yesterday's Deterrent: Tirpitz and the Birth of the German Battle Fleet (New York: Macmillan Co., 1965).
30Steinberg, Yesterday's Deterrent, 201.
31Young, German Diplomatic Relations, 88.
32Lowe, Great Powers, 150.
33Other tenets of British foreign policy at this time: control of the lowland countries (Belgium, Luxembourg) and the prevention of one power dominance on the continent of Europe.
34England's initial reaction to the passage of the first Reichstag Navy Law was actually restrained and lukewarm. It was in fact the Supplementary Naval Bill that jolted the British from their indifference. So Craig, Germany, 312: “The thought that the supplement promised to change the ration between the strength of their own fleet and that of Germany from two to one to three to two was not comforting, and the suspicion was quick to grow that the Germans, who had the strongest army in Europe, were now seeking to build the strongest fleet as well.”
35For a popular account of the first stage of the naval arms race that led to the creation of the first Dreadnought class battle ship see Robert K. Massie, Dreadnought: Britain, Germany, and the Coming of the Great War (New York: Random House, 1991).
36From 1897 to 1912 there were many attempts to forge some kind of an agreement between the two powers. They all eventually failed because German demands for suspension of their naval buildup was only offered if England agreed to absolute neutrality in any war that Germany might in the future find itself engaged in, a price too high for Great Britain to pay. See further Paul M. Kennedy, “German World Policy and the Alliance Negotiations with England, 1897-1900 in The Journal of Modern History, Vol. 45, No. 4 (Dec., 1973), 605-625; Steiner, Britain and the Origins, 44-83. The Haldane Mission was the last significant attempt made to achieve a rapprochement between England and Germany. On the background and failure of the Haldane mission, consult Kennedy, Rise, 450-52.
37Steinberg, Yesterday's Deterrent, 125-48. Actually, emphasizing that the German navy was meant to be a direct challenge to the Royal Navy was one of the key factors in changing the minds of those who had been originally opposed to Tirptiz's naval plans.
38See Langer, Diplomacy, 429, though I think he goes too far when he states that the “phenomenal development of German industry and trade was probably the decisive factor” in affecting German thought when it came to “world policy”, and the building of a navy in particular.
39For a concise examination of the books impact on the Great Powers, see further Langer, Diplomacy, 418-24.
40Steinberg, Yesterday's Deterrent, 142.
41Ibid, 17; emphasis added.
42Though the British did issue a formal protest against the misguided actions of its “alliance” partner, this had more to do with appeasing the United States (at this time Anglo-American relations were remarkably on solid terms) than it did in bringing about condemnation on the actions of Germany. So rightly Taylor, Struggle, 410 n.1.
43So it seems on the scholarly literature as well since even in Taylor's other wise comprehensive study the Venezuelan Affair receives barely a mention most of which comes from the footnote cited above. Moreover, not even in Taylor's extensive bibliographic essay is there listed a work devoted to the Venezuelan Affair. In fact, I could find no single volume account of this incident in the English language. My best source on this matter was Archibald Coolidge; see his The United States as a World Power (New York: Macmillan Co., 1908), 201-03.
44For these international incidents I have had to depend chiefly on the following two works: Eugene N. Anderson, The First Moroccan Crisis 1904-06 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1930) and Ima C. Barlow, The Agadir Crisis (North Carolina: North Carolina Press, 1940; reprint 1971). To my knowledge these remain the only two full accounts of both Moroccan crises, both of which have long been out of print. This is most unfortunate especially in the case of Anderson's study since it was published before the release of pertinent French documents and is therefore quite inadequate.
45For a list of the marginal grievances that had no real bearing on German actions in this crisis see Anderson, First Moroccan Crisis, 147 n.52. Wilhelm agreed to this action much against his will indicating the limited though real influence Bulow and Holstein exerted on German foreign policy at this time; idem, 188.
46Technically, Spain was a part of these secret talks as well but its role was rather minor concerning a small portion of Moroccan territory just across the Iberian peninsula that it historically had ties with. For more on the Spanish role consult Anderson, First Moroccan Crisis, 35-40.
47For background on the 1880 Madrid Convention see Barlow, Agadir, 19-21. It should be noted that Germany was in fact on firm legal ground with this action, something that often gets ignored in the literature. Regardless, Germany's subsequent aggressive actions would negate any initial moral high ground she might have had at the beginning of this crisis.
48Declasse had been the architect of the Anglo-French entente of 1904 that witnessed Great Britain officially abandoning its so called “splendid isolation” phase. Thus, as most scholars I have consulted on the first Moroccan crisis have noted part of Germany's actions were no doubt motivated by a desire to disrupt the Anglo-French entente; instead, the first Moroccan crisis strengthened it. For more relating to the effect of the Anglo-French entente on German policy, see Anderson, First Moroccan Crisis, 135-59 and Steiner, Britain and the Origins, 32-8.
49So Lowe, “If, following Declasse's fall, the German government had opened bilateral negotiations with France it could have ended the crisis over Morocco with prestige and profit”, Great Powers, 169.
50The clearest statement of a goal came from Prince Lichnowsky, a councilor in the German foreign office who stated only that “We need a success in our foreign policy”, as quoted in Anderson, First Moroccan Crisis, 147
51Ibid, 166.
52Germany claimed to be acting for the independence of Morocco thus earning that country's backing at the conference.
53For details on French gains in Morocco see further Taylor, Struggle, 439-40.
54Lowe, Great Powers, 175. This agreement came out of what some see as the actual second Moroccan crisis of 1908. For a survey and examination of this incident, see further Barlow, Agadir, 56-67.
55As with the first Moroccan crisis the Kaiser went along rather reluctantly. Both he and Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg wanted nothing to do with this new Moroccan crisis, but Kiderlen was able to persuade both to allow him to direct the foreign policy in this affair; Young, German Diplomatic Relations, 104-07.
56Germany's official reasons for landing at Agadir were similar to France's, namely, it was said to be done for the protection of nationals in the area. That this was demonstrably false was made clear by the choice of Agadir, a closed port with no German nationals within a hundred mile radius of the area; Barlow, Agadir, 231. But here again Germany was initially in the “right” because France's occupation of Fez was a violation of the Madrid Convention of 1880 and a violation of the Franco-German Accord of 1909. Yet just as in the first Moroccan crisis Germany's reckless actions would quickly cause it to lose the moral high ground.
57Barlow, Agadir, 255.
58See n. 47 above.
59One of the turning points in the crisis was a hawkish harangue that came to be known as the “Mansion House Speech” given by the otherwise pacific and later Prime Minister David Lloyd George who at one time was known to have considerable pro-German sympathies. For an examination of the speech, see Barlow, Agadir, 271-99.
60Lowe, Great Powers, 180: “This territory was absorbed into the existing German colony of the Kameruns, providing access to the River Congo, but its size was a mere 275,000 square kilometres with 1 million inhabitants.”
61See n.47 above.
62Germany's choice to refrain from making any colonial requests might partly be explained by the fact that in a rare moment of German history popular opinion concerning colonies was at an all time low. So Taylor, Struggle, 429.
63For the development of German policy and demands during this week, see Barlow, Agadir, 247-55.
64Ibid, 252.
65Ibid, 247.
66On the Anglo-Russo Convention of 1907 see Steiner, Britain and the Origins, 51, 90-1.
67The Franco-Russian agreements of 1892/94, the Anglo-French entente of 1904, and the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907 would form the basis for the Allied Powers of World War I.
68Mombauer, Origins, 8.
69Ibid.
70Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1994), 197.
71Unfortunately, due to space constraints I was not able to cover other cases in which German actions on the world stage created hostility between it and the other powers such as the Kruger Telegram affair, the Baghdad Railway project, and Germany's role in the Balkan crises of 1908-09 and 1912-13. Of these the Kruger Telegram is probably the most important though Taylor probably ascribes to it too much foresight when he says that the “later German excursions into world policy were implicit in the telegram”, Struggle, 366.
72Bismark is partly to blame for this problem because of the tightly and exclusive manner in which he controlled Germany's foreign policy under his Chancellorship.
73Craig, Germany, 303.
74Germany's First Bid for Colonies, 7.

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